Viewers of the 2025 NBA Finals witnessed a potential preview of advertising’s future: a bizarre 30-second spot for prediction market Kalshi, generated entirely by artificial intelligence in just two days. The commercial, which aired on the Disney-owned ABC network, has sparked a fervent discussion about AI’s disruptive power in the creative industries.
The ad presented a rapid-fire sequence of surreal vignettes, from a man being escorted out of an arena by police to an alien drinking beer at a party. This deliberately strange approach, dubbed “GTA-style madness,” was intended to be attention-grabbing and memorable. More than just a creative choice, it was a high-profile stress test of generative AI’s capabilities in a primetime arena traditionally dominated by high-budget, human-led productions.
This event pushed the conversation about AI-generated content from niche experiments into the mainstream, framing the debate around dramatic gains in speed and efficiency. In one YouTube discussion, the ad was noted for being memorable and successfully sparking curiosity about Kalshi’s platform.
A New Production Paradigm
The commercial’s creation relied on a suite of Google’s AI products. Self-described “AI Filmmaker” PJ Ace utilized the multimodal model Gemini to co-write the script and, critically, to translate each shot into the detailed text prompts required for video generation. The visual sequences themselves were produced by Veo 3, Google’s advanced AI video generator, which was launched just a month before the ad’s airing.
Ace detailed an exceptionally rapid workflow, moving from concept to a broadcast-ready file in just 48 hours. The process involved generating approximately 300 to 400 video clips with Veo 3 to yield the 15 usable shots that made it into the final edit. This compressed timeline stands in stark contrast to conventional production. Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, noted that “great commercials used to require seven figures and months iterating to land the right creative,” a model this AI-driven approach completely upends.
The “unhinged” creative brief was a strategic fit for the technology’s current strengths. AI video tools excel at producing novel, often surreal imagery. Ace advised Kalshi that the optimal use of Veo 3 was “to have crazy people doing crazy things while they highlight your brand.” This approach cleverly turns the technology’s limitations, like difficulty maintaining character consistency across scenes, into a deliberate aesthetic.
The Economic Disruption
The most striking claim is the massive reduction in production costs. PJ Ace asserted the ad represents a 95% cost reduction compared to traditional methods. While the project’s exact fee wasn’t public, Ace’s typical AI productions range from $10,000 to $40,000. One online comment even suggested the direct generation cost for the video clips was as low as $400, a figure that excludes creative fees and editing.
These numbers are a world away from established industry norms. The average production cost for a 30-second national TV spot ranges from $50,000 to $500,000, with high-end campaigns easily exceeding $1 million. Even a more conservative estimate of cost savings reveals a profound disruptive potential for advertising budgets and business models.
This shift could democratize video advertising for smaller businesses previously priced out of the medium. For larger brands, it allows for reallocating funds toward more frequent campaigns, extensive A/B testing, or highly personalized content. Traditional ad agencies now face a substantial challenge to their production-heavy business models, creating pressure to pivot toward high-level strategy, AI-augmented creative direction, and brand safety governance.
Navigating The ‘AI Slop’ Debate
The ad’s debut generated considerable online buzz, but reactions are mixed. While some praised its novelty and the tech behind it, others were critical of its quality and the broader implications of AI in creative fields.
This taps into broader anxieties about “AI slop,” a term referring to low-quality, generic, or incoherent content generated by artificial intelligence. One TikTok user commented, “The ad itself was bad and if the ‘marketing industry’ thinks ai is ready to go then they’ll lose millions not only on terrible ads but face backlash for using ai to create those terrible ads“. The sentiment reflects a fear that a focus on efficiency could degrade quality and erode audience trust.
While not a malicious deepfake, the ad’s existence fuels concerns about the difficulty in discerning authentic media from synthetic creations. The rapidly advancing realism of AI-generated videos raises significant questions about authenticity and the potential for manipulation, which extend directly into advertising.
Network Gatekeepers And Shifting Standards
The approval of the Kalshi commercial by Disney’s ABC for a prime NBA Finals slot was a noteworthy development, one that even surprised its creator. Disney’s advertising guidelines state it can reject any ad it finds inconsistent with its standards, and it currently has no specific public policy regarding AI-generated advertisements.
The situation is complex, as The Walt Disney Company is simultaneously engaged in litigation against AI image generation companies for alleged copyright infringement of its intellectual property. This suggests networks are in a period of flux, applying existing rules on a case-by-case basis until more comprehensive AI advertising policies are developed.
Kalshi’s Strategic Gambit
For Kalshi, this ad was a calculated marketing coup. The company operates as the first financial exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for trading on event outcomes. Co-founded by CEO Tarek Mansour, the platform enables users to purchase “Yes” or “No” positions on various topics, ranging from economic indicators to weather phenomena.
Despite its federal designation, Kalshi faces ongoing legal battles with state regulators who argue its sports-related markets constitute gambling, which falls under state jurisdiction. The company has also challenged the CFTC in court over prohibitions on contracts related to political elections.
By launching a high-profile, technologically advanced AI commercial, Kalshi is engaging in a form of brand positioning. The move helps distance the company from the “gambling” sector, reframing it as a cutting-edge fintech innovator. This branding aligns with its disruptive business model and could prove advantageous in its legal and regulatory dialogues.
The Future Of Human Creativity
The Kalshi ad demonstrates AI’s potential but also its limits. Needing 300-400 generations for 15 usable clips shows a significant trial-and-error element. Key challenges remain, including character consistency and conveying nuanced emotion.
Even AI proponents like PJ Ace stress that human skill is indispensable. “Brands still will need to pay a premium for taste,” he said, highlighting comedy writing as a uniquely valuable human skill. The future is a symbiosis, where AI augments and accelerates human capabilities.
The novelty of an AI-made ad will eventually fade. Long-term success will depend not on the technology itself but on whether it can help produce campaigns that are creative, strategically sound, and deliver measurable results. The Kalshi experiment has forced the industry to confront this new reality, and its response will shape advertising for years to come.
Key Takeaways:
- An AI-generated commercial for Kalshi aired during the 2025 NBA Finals, created in 48 hours with Google’s Veo 3 and Gemini AI.
- The ad boasted a potential 95% cost reduction compared to traditional production, sparking a debate on economic disruption in advertising.
- Public reaction was mixed, with some praising the innovation while others expressed concern about a potential decline in content quality, referred to as “AI slop.”
- The ad serves as a strategic branding move for Kalshi, a regulated prediction market aiming to establish itself as a fintech innovator amid ongoing regulatory battles.
- Human oversight, creativity, and strategic thinking remain vital in guiding technology and ensuring brand authenticity and quality control.